El Nino on the Horizon, IPB University Climatology Expert Outlines Climate Risk Management in the 2023 Planting Season
The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has forecasted that the general climatic conditions in the rice production centers in Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) and South Sulawesi in April 2023 are estimated in some areas to be below normal with rainfall levels still above 100 mm. However, in May, some are already below normal with rainfall below 100 mm and June will be mostly below normal, especially in Java with rainfall below 50 mm. This forecast has implications for the national rice harvest.
Prof Rizaldi Boer, Head of the Center for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management in Southeast Asia and the Pacific (CCROM-SEAP) IPB University explained that experimental rain forecasts for January to March from BMKG and CCROM IPB University were relatively consistent.
In April, he continued, in most of these months the rain is still above 150 mm except Bali and NTB, while May and June are generally below 100 mm. It is important to consider planting modifications for commodities with high water requirements.
"Experimental forecast of CCROM IPB University for July shows that almost all areas of rice production centers have negative rain anomalies, lower than normal, except in parts of Kalimantan and Sulawesi, especially in Papua," he explained in the Propaktani Webinar entitled 'Anticipating El Nino, Preparing for the 2023 Dry Season', (09/03).
The weather experiment forecast in July by IPB University, he continued, has a good skill and accuracy level in almost most areas, except in central Sumatra.
According to him, the ENSO (El Niño and the Southern Oscillation) forecast for 2023 shows the possibility of EL Niño with a dynamic model with a chance of above 50 percent after June. Both statistical and dynamic models show Indonesia will experience a relatively high El Niño and after February it will be more significant.
"In addition, there is a close relationship between the Pacific Ocean related to ENSO in Indonesia with the increase in sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean which also affects rainfall in Indonesia," he added.
The prediction is that the threat of floods and droughts in the 2023 planting season will be quite high, especially in Java and South Sulawesi.
"Potential crop failure due to drought, if not anticipated, can reach 60 thousand hectares due to drought with a potential decrease in production reaching around 500 thousand tons," he added.
However, he said, La Nina reduced the risk of drought in rice plants. Many harvests have occurred in February and March so that they can be replanted immediately. Thus, the threat of drought in May and June can be relatively anticipated. In addition, there is still a production surplus from January to February 2023 compared to 2022 and 2021, reaching more than three million tons of Milled Dry Grain (MDG).
"There is a need to optimize the use of the crop calendar (Katam) and adjust it at the site level. Mapping the development of planting and harvesting areas spatially and regularly can help adjust Katam information to the site level," said the IPB University Climatology Expert.
Farmer empowerment in utilizing weather forecast information in adjusting farming patterns also needs to be encouraged. Agricultural input assistance also continues to be channeled by taking into account the forecast conditions. (MW/Zul) (IAAS/RUM)
